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Home/Basketball/NBA draft lottery odds: how the 14 balls and 1,000 combinations work

NBA draft lottery odds: how the 14 balls and 1,000 combinations work

How the league works

Updated

Independent desk. Figures are traced to named sources and corrections are logged — see the editorial policy.

The three worst teams each have a 14 percent chance at the first pick, and no team can fall further than fifth. The mechanism behind those numbers is simple.

By NY Sports Express Desk · Published September 29, 2026

Brooklyn Nets rookie guard Džanan Musa taking a jump shot during warm ups prior to the NBA Preseason game between the Brooklyn Nets and the New York Knicks at t
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The NBA's draft lottery decides the order of the first four picks among the 14 teams that did not make the playoffs. Since the 2019 reform, the process is designed so that the worst records do not carry an overwhelming edge, and so that nobody falls too far.

The mechanism

Fourteen ping-pong balls are numbered 1 through 14. Four are drawn, in no particular order, which can happen in 1,001 ways. One combination is set aside, leaving 1,000 that are distributed among the 14 teams. The first four picks are determined by four consecutive drawings of such combinations; the remaining picks, 5 through 14, follow in reverse order of record.

Combinations by team

  • The three worst records: 140 combinations each, a 14.0 percent chance at No. 1.
  • 4th worst: 125 combinations (12.5%).
  • 5th worst: 105 (10.5%).
  • 6th: 90 (9.0%). 7th: 75 (7.5%). 8th: 60 (6.0%).
  • 9th: 45 (4.5%). 10th: 30 (3.0%). 11th: 20 (2.0%).
  • 12th: 15 (1.5%). 13th: 10 (1.0%). 14th: 5 (0.5%).

The numbers add up to exactly 1,000, so each combination is a tenth of one percent.

How far a team can fall

Because only four picks are drawn and the others are returned to reverse record order, the team with the worst record can fall to fifth at most, and the second-worst to sixth. Before 2019, the worst team had a 25 percent chance of the first pick and could fall to fifth; the reform flattened the odds at the top and increased them for teams further down.

What the odds mean in practice

A team with 14 percent odds still has an 86 percent chance of not winning the lottery, and the most likely outcome for it is picking second, third, fourth or fifth. The lottery changes where a team ends up by a few slots, which is why the standings in the bottom half of the league remain meaningful to the end of the season.

Sources

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