From the archive
Updated
Independent desk. Figures are traced to named sources and corrections are logged — see the editorial policy.
After a longer-than-expected layoff, football season is finally getting underway in the Big Ten, and it’s starting with a bang, featuring some cross-divisional showdowns, divisional rivalries, and a top-25 matchup.
Here’s a look at what you can expect from each game this week.
Illinois at #14 Wisconsin
Date: Friday, October 23 – 8:00 PM ET
Odds: Wisconsin -20
Total: 51
The Badgers are entering into this season without Jonathon Taylor in their backfield for the first time since 2016 and also have to replace Rimington Trophy winner Tyler Biadasz on the offensive line, but neither of those things is going not going to change Wisconsin’s identity as a power running football team.
The Badgers will establish the run against the Illini with Garrett Groshek and Nakia Watson splitting carries behind an always-talented offensive line. On defense, the Badgers will lean on a veteran-laden front and secondary.
Expect Wisconsin to avenge its 2019 upset loss to Illinois on Friday night and win big.
Pick: Wisconsin -20
Nebraska at #5 Ohio State
Date: Saturday, October 24 – NOON ET
Odds: Ohio State -27.5
Total: 65.5
The Buckeyes enter the season with national championship hopes and with Heisman finalist Justin Fields leading the way, boasts what could be an even more lethal offense than last year’s squad, which averaged almost 47 points a game.
If Ohio State has a weakness, it’s on defense. The Buckeyes must replace seven starters on the defensive side of the ball, three of which were first-round picks in the 2020 NFL Draft. Nebraska, meanwhile, returns 10 offensive players with five or more starts that should test a young Ohio State defense.
Expect an onslaught of points between these two teams on Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Over 65.5
Rutgers at Michigan State
Date: Saturday, October 24 – NOON ET
Odds: Michigan State -13.5
Total: 45.5
Michigan State returns the bulk of a top-10 defense and has plenty of experience at every offensive position as well, highlighted by an offensive line that has 10 players with starting experience. Rutgers, meanwhile, has question marks at every offensive position besides running back and lacks experience on the defensive line and in the secondary.
Though Rutgers was able to add some talent by way of the transfer portal this offseason, Michigan State is still the decidedly stronger team this season and should win comfortably.
Pick: Michigan State -13.5
#8 Penn State at Indiana
Date: Saturday, October 24 – 3:30 ET
Odds: Penn State -6.5
Total: 57
Both teams feature experienced quarterbacks and a strong supporting cast on offense, with Indiana returning its leading rusher and receiver while Penn State boasts one of the deepest running back rooms in the country and returns All-American Pat Freiermuth at tight end.
On the defensive side of the ball, Penn State may have a slight talent edge, but it’s mostly unproven with the Nittany Lions replacing seven starters this year. Meanwhile, Indiana returns the bulk of its defense from last year.
This is going to be a close game throughout, but Penn State is the more talented team and will pull away in the end.
Pick: Penn State -6.5
Iowa at Purdue
Date: Saturday, October 24 – 3:30 ET
Odds: Iowa -3.5
Total: 52
There will be new faces all over the field for Iowa this season as the Hawkeyes replace longtime starting quarterback Nate Stanley, elite offensive lineman Tristan Wirfs, and lose their top pass rusher, top cornerback, top safety and top linebacker on the defensive side of the ball.
Looking to take advantage of the inexperience at defense is an elite pair of weapons on the Purdue offense. Rondale Moore is widely known as one of the most electric players in the country and he’s joined by David Bell, who caught 86 balls for 1,035 yards as a true freshman last year.
Expect an inexperienced Iowa team to start slow on both sides of the ball and for Purdue to take advantage.
Pick: Purdue +3.5
#18 Michigan at #21 Minnesota
Date: Saturday, October 24 – 7:00 ET
Odds: Michigan -3
Total: 54.5
Since 2006, Michigan is 1-20 on the road against ranked opponents. The Wolverines will look to improve upon that record against Minnesota, but the Gophers are more than equipped to pull the upset.
Minnesota returns seven starters on offense, including quarterback Tanner Morgan and wide receiver Rashod Bateman, arguably the top receiver in the country. On defense, the Gophers lose six starters, but face an equally inexperienced Michigan team with a new quarterback, four new offensive linemen, and missing three of its top four receivers from last season.
Minnesota is the better, more experienced team in this game and should come away with a big season-opening win.
Pick: Minnesota +3
Maryland at Northwestern
Date: Saturday, October 24 – 7:30 ET
Odds: Northwestern -11
Total: 52.5
Last year, Northwestern couldn’t do anything on offense and Maryland couldn’t stop anybody on defense. With both teams desperately looking for improvement in those areas, this is a fitting early-season matchup.
The strongest unit in this contest from either team will be the Wildcat defense. Led by three-year starting linebacker Paddy Fisher and tackles leader Blake Gallagher, Northwestern will look to control the game on the defensive side of the ball.
Expect a low-scoring affair as two offenses look for new playmakers and a strong defense leads the way for the Wildcats.
Prediction: Under 52.5